Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
